The world must be ending because… (gulp)… I’m defending Bill Belichick

The world is a strange place. I despise New England, Boston, Tom Brady, and Bill Belichick more than any other region, city, team, people, and person in the world. If you want proof of this, go here.

I have no love for the Colts either. They’re a rival franchise that has beaten us far too many times for my liking. However, as I was Live Twitter Blogging the game last night, @tevetorbes  summed my feelings up best:

as a titans fan, I’m conflicted: I want the Colts to lose but I want the Pats to die in a dumpster fire.

EXACTLY. I don’t like the Colts, but the Patriots represent the Dark Prince himself. They represent evil. They represent the Twilight movie series. They represent what is wrong with the world. They ARE global warming.

And yet… here I stand. Ready to defend the man who is the Evil Emperor of this Kingdom of Death and Despair. “Why Rogersworthe? Why would you defend this evil man, the personification of Screwtape himself?”

Because it is not Belichick I defend. It is progressive, smart, innovative football.

In case you live in Vermont (where they hate football) or your wife was giving birth to your first born child last night, this is the setting. The Colts and Patriots were playing in Indianapolis. The Patriots had pretty much dominated the game. Manning had looked horrific at times and Randy Moss was running all over the field. On top of it, Pierre “The French Waiter” Garcon was dropping passes, as was Austin “I’m a mormon” Collie. But late in the 4th, the Colts were amassing a comeback and were down 34-28 and the Patriots had the ball with just over 2 minutes left.

On 3rd and 2 from their own 28, Tom Brady threw an incomplete pass. 4th and 2 on their own 28, and conventional football wisdom is to punt it and “show faith in your defense” (the dumbest cliche in the history of the world). Every single analyst and announcer agrees with the call. There is only one type of person who disagrees with this “conventional wisdom”:

Smart people.

Yeah I said it. Lando can back this up. I looked at him before the Pats showed they were going for it and said, “They should go for it.” For all the hatred I contain of Bill Belichick, nobody can deny that he is smart. Nobody denies this of Satan either. Brain power is not the issue with Belichick. And so he did. He made the smart move, like he almost always does.

And it didn’t work.

I love it when the Patriots lose, even when it is to the Colts. I love it. However, a small part of me wished it had worked. Because now we have to listen to the bullshit analysis of idiots who can’t think outside the box.

Trent Dilfer, Colin Cowherd, Mike and Mike, Rodney Harrison, Tony Dungy, etc., etc. are all saying the same thing: “You got to punt there and show faith in your defense.”

Why? Why is he required to “show faith” in his defense? If he doesn’t are they just going to fold for the rest of the year and feel betrayed by Belichick? If the defense wants faith, then why don’t they start by not getting their asses lit up over and over again by Peyton Manning. How about a Coach puts faith in what he is good at. That’s what I want to see.  Manning had been torching, and I mean TORCHING, the Patriots secondary the past two drives.

The strength of the Patriots is their offense. The weakness of the Colts is their defense. If you punt, you are willingly reversing that advantage. You are saying, “I’m gonna throw my worst at your best – SHOWTIME!” Belichick refused do that. He decided he wanted his best versus his opponents worst for all the marbles. Personally, that’s what I want as well.

Let me put it this way. You have to bet all of your life savings. ALL of it. Would you rather bet on A) the Patriots offense, which had 475 yards and 34 points up to that point, along with a 60.5% 4th Down conversion rate with the Patriots since 2001, to get 2 yards to win or B) the porous Patriots secondary to stop Peyton Manning with 2 minutes and 3 time outs to get 60 yards, something he has done hundreds of times. If it’s me, I’m betting on the Patriots offense getting 2 yards. And you know what, they might have gotten it. There was no challenge of the spot (although I think the ref got it right) because the Patriots were out of timeouts.

The blog Advanced NFL Stats (more smart people!) sums it up best:

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount.

That means the Patriots, by going for it, gave themselves a 79% chance to win, whereas by punting, they gave themselves a 70% chance to win. Also, that 70% chance is based on the NFL Average Quarterback making that game ending drive, not Peyton Manning.

So, the lesson is as always:

Take what Trent Dilfer, Mike and Mike, Rodney Harrison, and all those other talking heads say and do the opposite. When you do that, you’ll find yourself in the company of some very smart people.

Like Rogersworthe. Because I’m a badass.

Tags: Bill Belichick, Defending Bill Belichick, Indianapolis Colts, Media Critique Monday, Media Failures, New England Patriots, Progressive football, Smart football, Tom Brady